Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Who Will Oloo Vote for in 2013?

 Onyango Oloo Makes A Reckless Digital Prediction:

I want to join all the political clairvoyants, marabouts, waganga and sooth sayers.

Everyone has an opinion about who will become the fourth president of the republic of Kenya.

Why should DAVID Onyango Oloo be left out-especially since my name sake GEORGE Onyango Oloo, the high profile Secretary General of TNA is already 100% sure that Uhuru Kenyatta will win by a landside and Mutahi Ngunyi declared that the Jubilee Alliance locked it up way back on December 18, 2012 at the formal conclusion of the Kenya voter registration exercise?

The pollsters-Ipsos Synovate, Infotrack, Strategic Research etc- believe it is too close to call.

I do not think it is too close so I will call it right now, on Wednesday, February 6, 2013:

CORD-the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy- will win the Presidential race by 53% of the vote, sealing the matter in the FIRST ROUND.

Who will I be voting for?

Raila Amolo Odinga of course.

Many social media aficionados-especially those rabid, almost deranged ODM supporters are most likely astonished by this pronouncement from yours truly.

My orange clad friends, I  hope, for your own sakes that you do not suffer from a massive heart attack, leading to your early, untimely and completely unnecessary demise before you line up to vote on March 4, 2013 as a result of my almost premature projection of the winner almost a month before the actual polls.

Let me get down on my knees right now and pray for you-even though I am normally a very secular guy who is hardly seen anywhere near a place of worship.

But I can see where you are coming from.

I hear many of you muttering and nattering:

Is this not the SAME Onyango Oloo who was the MC at Miguna Miguna's controversial book launch  this last July? Is he NOT the same Onyango Oloo who defended Miguna's right to freedom of conscience, expression, association and assembly tooth and nail? The same Oloo who was dodging baying mobs in Kisumu and Mombasa violently disrupting the Peeling Back the Mask book tour?

Is this not the same Onyango Oloo who just a few days ago blogged thus:

 Over the last three weeks however, Kenyans have been transfixed by the shenanigans seeping out of the quixotic, shambolic, some would say idiotic travesty, of the so-called party primaries to pick the nominees for parliament and various county assembly slots. This is not the place to rehash this embarrassing litany of pre-election grand larceny, fraud and violent-prone weeding out process which has seen  genuine winners wake up in shock to discover that unscrupulous  big party wigs replaced their names at the very last minute with those of opponents they had  convincingly  vanquished during the nomination process.

The biggest culprits have been the two main formations- the ODM dominated Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) and the TNA  spear headed constellation of like minded parties including their principal partner URP all coming together under the aegis of the Jubilee Alliance...

Let me CONFIRM that I am the very same individual.

So, why on earth will the very same Onyango Oloo be voting for Raila Odinga in 2013?

Because FIVE YEARS ago, I voted for Raila and  my vote DID NOT COUNT.

Mwai Kibaki and his PNU co-plotters who perpetrated that  notorious  2007 coup plot stole my right along with millions of other compatriots, to choose our leaders.

But the MAIN REASON why I will be voting for Raila Odinga is because it is my patriotic duty as a consistent democrat and reformer to do exactly that.

 In 2002, Kenyans overwhelmingly voted for Mwai Kibaki as the surest way to bring down the 39 year old dictatorship of Moi and KANU. I was among the millions of Kenyans who felt the urge to exercise this democratic right even though at the time I was marooned in Montreal, Quebec, thousands of miles across the Atlantic Ocean from my east African homeland. We all knew that Kibaki-he of the razor blade and the KANU mugumo tree- was an arch conservative who had served Moi for over a decade as a loyal Vice President. The ushering in of the NARC regime, with all its contradictions, was NECESSARY for our country to break the log jam occasioned by the living nightmare of the KANU kleptocracy, first presided over by Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, followed by his protégé/mentee  despot, Daniel arap Moi.

The last ten years of Kibaki's rule has been punctuated by Anglo-Leasing, the consolidation of a selfish  navel gazing, ethno-class  narco-comprador cabal-and of course, the Thika Super Highway, and should I add, the  2010 Constitution. Some of these achievements can not be entirely gifted to Kibaki's so called far reaching statesmanesque acumen because the specific historical, material, political and socio-economic conditions facilitated these progressive milestones. As Kibaki retreats to his dacha in Othaya he leaves behind a mixed legacy deserving of praise and also not devoid of harsh critiques.

To get to the next level, we need to bring in a team which has a modicum of  reformist credentials in fighting for democracy and social change in contemporary Kenya.

That team is NOT called the Jubilee Alliance- a motley crew of KANU throwbacks like Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto and two faced sell outs like Charity Ngilu.

And that team is certainly NOT the Amani Coalition fronted by  the wishy washy perpetual  waffler Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi and backed "kwa hali na mali" by the retired  billionaire state robber Daniel arap Moi.

Now strictly speaking, CORD is nothing to write home about-especially when we rewind the shambolic party primaries just concluded. Kalonzo Musyoka is no Nelson Mandela. Moses Wetangula is not Thomas Sankara and Raila Odinga is not Vladimir Lenin.

This Onyango Oloo has NEVER BEEN a member of ODM, always and forever loyal  to my tiny but ideologically principled party, the SDP.

Let us not expect a new dawn in Kenya come March 4th. In fact the long day and night of neo-colonial misery will persist for a while.  The drug lords and narco-traffickers bankrolling some of CORD's activities will graduate into Governors, Senators and Members of Parliament.

I have very  low expectations of a CORD regime.

So why on earth, am I casting my lot with these folks?

It is because I am a student of history and politics.

And I am an adherent of dialectics and historical materialism.

What  the heck am I  yammering and jabbbering about?

Please bear with me, O impatient reader or browser, whatever the case may be.

Here is where I am coming from:

In the 1950s the Kenya Land and Freedom Army led by Field Marshall Dedan Kimathi wa Waciuri spearheaded the Mau Mau War for National Independence which led to flag independence on  December 12, 1963.

Mzee Kenyatta promptly BETRAYED the aspirations of  the freedom fighters and helped usher in neocolonialism.

In April 1966, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga broke away from KANU and created the opposition Kenya People's Union which was crushed by the state on October 29, 1969  when Jaramogi and his KPU comrades were flung into the dungeons of detention after their party was proscribed.

Throughout the 1970s,1980s and  1990s, a  whole generation of more  militant, left wing patriots like Ngugi wa Thiong'o, Edward Oyugi, Alamin Mazrui, Willy Mutunga, Maina wa Kinyatti,  Micere Mugo, Njeri Kabeberi, Mwandawiro Mghanga, Oduor Ongwen, Wafula Buke, Adongo Ogony to name but a few and  progressive democrats like Raila Odinga, Martin Shikuku, George Anyona, James Orengo, Gitobu Imanyara, Paul Muite, Chibule wa Tsuma, Mwashengu Mwachofi,  Mtumishi Kathangu, Abuya Abuya, Timothy Njoya, Henry Okullu, Alexander Muge, David Gitari, Wangari Maathai and others carried high the mwenge, the torch of our national democratic movement. These strivings  contributed to the crescendo which  culminated in the massive NARC victory of December 2002.

The NARC regime which disappointed Kenyans by not delivering on the promise of a democratic constitution nevertheless presided over the  relative opening of democratic space between 2003 and 2007.

Even the lame duck Grand Coalition Government, the result of a shot gun marriage between two bitter rivals, can be credited with  serving as a conduit for Kenyans to promulgate the  2010 Constitution.

Kenya needs to get to the next level.

We will not be taken to that next level by a pair of  desperate Moi era politicians who have the added burden of being among the four Kenyans due to go on trial in a far off European court  to answer charges of  being  among those bearing the greatest responsibility for serious crimes against humanity perpetrated during the tumultous post-election violence between half a decade ago.

They simply do NOT QUALIFY as  reliable stewards of that new political dispensation under the aegis of our new constitution which at least one of them actively and bitterly opposed a couple of years ago.

So basically for now, we are STUCK with Raila Odinga and CORD.

Among the presidential candidates on offer, Raila is  the most  well placed to attempt that journey of taking us to that new place in Kenya's history.

Let me reprise some words I wrote  in a blog in 2011 when my good friend Miguna Miguna was at the height of his fractious feud with the outgoing Prime Minister:

Now when it comes to the vuta-nikuvute between Raila Odinga and Miguna Miguna, what is the nature of the contradictions?

Are these antagonistic or non-antagonistic?

In my private, one on one conversations with Miguna, I have argued that the tensions, hostilities and conflicts between the duo are NON-ANTAGONISTIC.

I have argued that those of us who are part of the progressive camp in Kenya are on THE SAME SIDE WITH RAILA AMOLO ODINGA.

I have argued that whatever misgivings we have about the Prime Minister, we cannot wily nilly EXPEL HIM FROM THE REFORM CAMP.

Is EVERYBODY in the Kenyan reform camp a card carrying Communist?

Clearly not.

Some of us are socialists, some are social democrats. Many are liberals and dozens upon dozens are nationalists and sincere women and men of faith (Christian, Muslims, Hindus etc), well meaning decent Kenyan citizens who do not care much about ideological distinctions and what not.

We are UNITED by our COMMON VISION.

What is that binding glue?

At the moment I would posit that ANY KENYAN who genuinely believes in the Kenyan Constitution and works strenuously for its faithful implementation is in the PROGRESSIVE and REFORMIST CAMP.

Note: I did NOT say “revolutionary”.

Does my above definition of progressive Kenyans in the REFORM CAMP include or exclude Miguna Miguna?

Does it include or exclude Raila Odinga?

Those are rhetorical questions.

I could give you MORE reasons why I will be voting for the CORD ticket but I think the above suffices for now.

Now let me turn to other matters because I am writing this digital essay directly  into my blog, sitting at a cyber cafe in downtown Nairobi on a mid week late afternoon, a cyber cafe which is eating my shillings minute by minute. I will post it directly on several  Kenyan oriented online forums, mailing lists and discussion groups without proof reading and only come back to edit it hours later after this piece has been brutally and viciously savaged by assorted cyberhounds in online fora, blogosphere and twitter twilight word, anonymous and not so anonymous.

Unlike other pundits, Onyango Oloo does NOT think that this is a "close" or a "tight" race which will be decided  by a run off.

No, no, no.

To quote the unfortunate Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi, this match is being decided within the  full 90 minutes. It will not even be going to injury time.

But about the polls?

Polls?

From Ipsos Synovate, Infotrack, Strategic Research, Octopus, the lot...

To that I say, polls, shmolls!

I agree with those politicians who are saying that the polls are NOT accurate.

Only in the sense that these forecasts are UNDERESTIMATING the margin of CORD's victory over the Jubilee Alliance.

Why do I say that?
1. Over the next two and a  half weeks, the undecided will shrink to almost 0%.
2. Mudavadi's supporters are going to DESERT  HIM in droves.
3. In the Rift Valley within William Ruto's Kalenjin base, voters will overwhelmingly vote in URP candidates as Governors, Senators, MPs, Women's Representatives and County Reps. But when it comes to the Presidential vote, BECAUSE William Ruto is NOT the  top of the Jubilee ticket, as many as 40% to 45%  of URP supporters will  pause before that booth before marking the ballot in secret for Raila Odinga.
4. Contrary to what Mutahi Ngunyi is positing, as many as 50% of the voters in the Meru region will vote for CORD. And within the  former Central Province, Raila/Kalonzo may garner up to  10% of the vote.
5. Sadly the "41 Against 1" formula may return to bite Jubilee in the derriere especially given the crass way people like the TNA Chair Sakaja and TNA pundit Mutahi Ngunyi are crowing  triumphant about how  the Jubilee Alliance locked away the  victory on  December 18, 2012 by  targeting the two populous blocs, the Agikuyu and Kalenjin cluster.
Now where did Onyango Oloo get all these  insights?


I could go into a lot of detailed explanations but to cut a long story short let me end thus:

Last night as I was fast asleep in the Eastlands working class section of Nairobi, some fleeting ethereal extra terrestrial being clad in Kenyan colours and  strumming on a nyatiti and pounding on an  ohangla drum appeared to me and told me to reveal these things to a disbelieving Kenyan public.

There.

I have cited my source.

  I cannot, for the life of  me,  trace HIM/HER.

And oops, they forgot to leave  behind their cell number, email address or twitter account details.

Onyango Oloo
Nairobi, Kenya
17:05 PM East African Standard Time






2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Whats new? tribal politics is pure puke. Why not P.K if your genuine about change and getting rid of divisive politics. Kenyans are a let down :-(

Kenya Democracy Project said...

Anonymous. I notice you do not have the COURAGE to post in your REAL NAME. It is a bit bizarre, but quite predictable, for you to equate my analysis with a "tribal mindset". Did you BOTHER to read the essay at all?

Onyango Oloo